11/4/2006
Walking the floor…
by Shane Mason on 11:23 pm.
I am doing the modern day version of ‘Flowers on the Wall”.
Countin’ flowers on the wall
That don’t bother me at all
Playin’ solitaire till dawn with a deck of fifty-one
Smokin’ cigarettes and watchin’ Captain Kangaroo
Now don’t tell me I’ve nothin’ to do
I cleaned my garage today. Made two trips to the dump, where I saw the abortion plane flying around. Sat down at my computer 1353 times. Had no idea what to do so I did stuff like google for ‘watermelon’ or ‘how are aluminum cans made’. I go to google news and look at the headlines but can’t focus enough to read an entire article. I was entertained by the Insane Fisherman’s take on the Victory Rally. Watch TV for a few minutes, but my wife changes the channel every time a Burns commercial comes on. I have tried to write 234 posts here. I want to write something that will make this all be over and done with a happy ending. I can’t. My computer is simply not that powerfull.
We are though. Tomorrow I am going down to the dem headquarters to help canvas the neighborhoods, get out the damn vote. Tell people to get off their behinds and get down to the polls. Scott is doing it. Jay is doing it. Troutburst is doing it. Everyone is doing it. You do it too.
[update] Even if you don’t have a ‘local’ demo office, go out and talk to your neighbors, your family, folks at church. Be brave. I have a bumper sticker on my car that I think of often in this sort of situation:
| Comments (18) | Permanent Link | Categories: '06, democrats, elections, political |
Dead Heat: I’m Off to Walk Doors
by Matt Singer on 9:21 am.
Mason-Dixon has the race as a dead heat: 47-47. The poll was in the field from October 31-November 2. The Rasmussen poll that had Tester up 4 was taken November 1. The Zogby poll showing it a 1 point race occured between October 24 and October 31.
The reality? We’re tied — at most, 1 or 2 points ahead — at worst, we’re down 1 or 2. It’s turnout now.
| Comments (56) | Permanent Link | Categories: '06, Front Page, democrats, elections |
IMPORTANT: Here’s what’s at stake
by Shane Mason on 12:35 am.
We are all sharing an important moment here. Montana has the power to make a change, a real change. This opportunity doesn’t come to Montana that often, so we should seize the day. We have a real opportunity here and we must not squander it.
Conrad Burns has claimed a number of times that he has faith in President Bush’s war strategy. He praised this ’secret’ strategy to stay the course in the Billings debate, and every other debate before and after. Though a dozen retired generals have called for Rumsfeld’s resignation, George Bush and Conrad Burns say that we should stay the course. The Army Times, The Marine Corps Times, The Air Force Times and the The Navy Times announced that they would call for Rumsfeld’s resignation on Monday. President Bush made a statement on the campaign trail last week that Donald Rumsfeld was his guy and would have his position for the remainder of the Bush administration. President Bush will stay the course in Iraq and Conrad Burns will provide his lockstep support of the failed policy in Iraq if is re-elected.
So, what’s at stake here? What are the real consequences? Are there any? I will put it below the fold out of respect for the gentle souls among us, but you should look because it is very real.
(more…)
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11/3/2006
I’ll See Your Dog…
by Matt Singer on 4:38 pm.
| Comments (9) | Permanent Link | Categories: '06, Front Page, democrats, elections |
MT-Sen: Closing Time
by Matt Singer on 10:42 am.
Rasmussen has moved the Montana Senate race back to “Lean Dem” from “Toss Up.” They’ve got Tester up 50-46. Pulling out leaners, Tester is up 48-43.
60% of Tester voters say they’re voting for Tester. 32% say they’re voting against Burns. 66% of Burns’ backers say they’re voting for Burns. 32% say they’re voting against Tester.
Meanwhile, Governing notes that polling places in Montana are being consolidated — one more reason to vote early.
Oh, and I forgot to mention it, but this exchange last night was hilarious:
Taken by the spirit of the rally, retired UM professor Lucien Hut shouted out: “I’ll work so hard, I’ll have Conrad Burns vote for Jon Tester.â€To which Schweitzer quipped: “Just pay Conrad Burns, and he’ll vote any way.â€
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Tester’s Independent Streak
by Matt Singer on 9:03 am.
One of the funny things about getting into an election is that some of the original reasons for doing it can get muddled along the way. Back in April or May of 2005, when chatter about Tester running for the Senate was heating up, I remember going over his voting scores from various interest groups and one of the things I liked was that he didn’t have a lifetime 100% from any of ‘em — including a couple that I’m a member of. He’d also broken with the Dems a couple times in high-profile ways. That’s something that an elected official needs to be willing to do. It needs to be for the right reasons (not lobbyist cash), of course, and it should be handled properly (in a way that is still respectful of those groups who represent real people and businesses and that respects the party and its members).
But the bigger reason why it was important was that sending someone to Washington, D.C., you need to have a Senator who is willing to even tell friends “No” occasionally.
The Gazette picks up that storyline today and dives into a number of Tester’s “independent” votes — a number of which I don’t agree with. I also am pretty sure I disagree with him on immigration and same-sex marriage. We’re a bit closer on taxes, although I’m still a bit to his left (even as I’m to the right — yes, I really am — of a number of Democrats). The Gazette story makes clear that Tester’s record when it comes to taxes is thoughtful — he supported some tax increases and some tax decreases, neither reflexively supporting revenue increases nor buying into the mindless mantra of “any money going to the government is a waste.”
Years ago, my father and I were backpacking together. Those always presented good opportunities for long conversations. In one of those conversations, my father explained what he looks for in candidates — people who think before they act, who have strong principles, and can provide sound justifications for their behavior. This memory may be muddled (as my dad would tell you, human memory is pretty fallible), but I think it is the gist of what he told me one night in the Beartooth Wilderness. My dad’s a moderate Republican, but he has supported Tester from close to the beginning. I think this independent streak goes a long way toward explaining it.
I chuckle occasionally as I read in national media about how Tester was the party’s “chosen one” in the primary, knowing that nothing could be further from the truth. They didn’t think he was a good enough fundraiser (aka “lapdog”). They didn’t think he was slick enough. To their good name, they got behind him quickly after the groundswell of support from real Montanans gave him an overwhelming primary victory. To their discredit, they now try to pretend that it was their maneuvering that resulted in Tester’s win, rather than the hard-work and dedication of a number of Montanans who wrote $20 checks and made 1,000s of phone calls to their fellow residents of this state.
The Montanans who did that — trust me, I know almost all of ‘em — aren’t going to ask Tester to be something that he isn’t. In fact, I think most of us will ask him to keep that independent streak, to occasionally disagree with us, and to even occasionally piss us off provided he doesn’t ever sell out to D.C.
There are five days left. We’ve got a chance to get a good man with an independent streak and the stones to back it up. He can stand up to interest groups — he’s done it before. He can stand up to party leadership — he’s done it before. He can even stand up to big money — he’s done it before. Perhaps more importantly, he can do it with some respect.
Back to work.
| Comments (18) | Permanent Link | Categories: '06, Front Page, democrats, elections |
The Most Corrupt Man in Montana
by Shane Mason on 6:35 am.
Scandals, bribery and greed follow Burns like dust followed Pigpen on Peanuts. It’s all over him like a cheap suit (or white on rice). This isn’t really new, but it is rearing its head again. I have never seen his Washington office, but I am pretty sure that Burns has a sign outside his office that says:
FEDERAL JUDICIAL APPOINTMENTS
$5000
I wonder if he issues coupons or has bluelight specials? It constantly amazes me how cheap that dude will sell us all out for. A new report called Money Trails to the Federal Bench details how American justice is up for sale to the highest bidder. It details how Burns took the maximum donation from a judge candidate just one day before recommending him for a federal appointment.
Burns is crooked and it stinks to high heaven. Read the full report here [PDF Document].
| Comments (23) | Permanent Link | Categories: '06, Conrad Burns, dickhead, elections, political |
11/2/2006
I just called to say…
by Shane Mason on 11:35 pm.
Remember that John Tester will be holding a “Rally for Change” along with Governor Scweitzer and Max Baucus at the Capitol Rotunda Friday at 10:00 am. Also, he will be in Bozeman with Baucus Saturday evening at 6:00 pm at the Wilson school gymnasium. While I was telling people that on the phones tonight, I had the good fortune to find Wulfgar on my call list. It is always good to chat with him.
Find the event near you here. Great Falls, Havre, Laurel, Red Lodge, Livingston, Townsend, Boulder, Hamilton, Missoula and Billings are still ahead.
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Rasmussen Continues to Say 4 Point Race
by Matt Singer on 1:35 pm.
Rasmussen has a new poll (for members only) that is apparently Tester up by 4 — 50-46. Rasmussen has a better track record than Zogby. This is essentially unchanged from the last Rasmussen poll, which was Tester 51-47.
This is all about turnout.
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11/1/2006
Max Does the Right Thing. Thanks.
by Shane Mason on 11:14 pm.
I pointed out how sleazy it is that Burns has been trying to piggy back on Max Baucus’s popularity. He has been pulling a page from the Rehberg playbook and campaigning as a democrat, using Baucus’s record and hiding his own. Following the radio ad that ran in the Butte area disputing Burns’s claims, Tester is now running a television ad where Max sets the record straight. Matt McKenna says the ad will be running statewide and
you would have to be under a large rock in a deep hole not to see this ad over the next week
In truth, I think that the ad is very powerful. See for yourself.
| Comments (7) | Permanent Link | Categories: '06, Conrad Burns, dickhead, elections, montana, political |
Senate Online Poll, Please Vote
by Shane Mason on 3:00 pm.
Quick. Go to the Billings Gazette and vote for the senator of your choice. It is right on the front page. The current results are:
Conrad Burns 57%
Jon Tester 40%
Stan Jones 2%
with about 25,000 votes.
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The Case for Tester
by Matt Singer on 9:31 am.
The Billings Gazette has endorsed Jon Tester in a very solid piece:
In January 2004, as a leader of Montana Democrats, state Sen. Jon Tester held a press conference at which he advocated increased worker training, responsible development of natural resources, expanded employee health care and better funding for education.
As they point out, Tester led the Montana Dems to do precisely that as President of the Montana Senate. The Gazette reviews a bunch of Tester’s record, basically concluding that someone who lived up to his promises in Montana is more likely to be trusted than Conrad Burns. Great closing, too:
Tester has pledged that, if elected to the U.S. Senate, he will adhere to stricter ethical standards than Congress requires in reporting and refusing lobbyist gifts. Contrast that with Burns’ decision to celebrate his 71st birthday with a $2,000-per-person party at a Washington, D.C., lobbying firm. Or his choice in September to take the Vonage private jet from D.C. to Bigfork to his annual golf tournament. Nothing illegal in either case, but is that the image Montanans want their senator to present?For those Montanans who are appalled at the burgeoning national debt, concerned about U.S. foreign policy, alarmed that today’s spending will be paid for by our children and grandchildren and fed up with business as usual in Washington, D.C., Tester is a fresh alternative. Those who want change have an intelligent, hardworking, common-sense choice in voting for Jon Tester.
That’s two editorial boards coming down for Tester. Where will the rest cast their lot?
Change or more of the same?
| Comments (9) | Permanent Link | Categories: '06, Front Page, democrats, elections |
They Are The Dividers…
by Shane Mason on 12:00 am.
President Bush will be here later this week to stump for Conrad Burns. Is he coming here as the decider? The uniter? No, he coming as the divider. Here is a preview from speeches he has made this week:
“When it comes to listening to the terrorists, what’s the Democrats’ answer? It’s just say no. When it come to detaining terrorists, what is the Democrats’ answer Just say no. When it comes to questioning terrorists, what’s the Democrats’ answer? Just say no. When it comes to trying terrorists, what’s the Democrats’ answer. Just say no.â€
He is not saying ‘the Republican plan to keep America safe is better than the Democrats’. What he is saying here is that we want the terroris to succeed. We want to see American lives lost. This isn’t how we work together, this is how we marginalize 50% of the American population.
“The Democrat approach in Iraq comes down to this: The terrorists win, and America loses.â€
I could point out that with over 100 Americans killed in Iraq this month, his approach to Iraq is working out really poorly. I am not saying that he wants us to fail. I am simply pointing out that he is incapable of a coherent strategy. There is a difference here. I am not questioning his motivation as he questions all democrats.
You can say that my ideas are wrong and I will have an active and spirited debate with you on that. However, if you question my motivations or patriotism then the debate is off the table and a fight is on the table. Too often that is what it comes down to from both sides and it is simply not OK. We have heard it time and again from this president and Conrad Burns. I hear it echoed here from thoughtless commenters “The democrats want us to fail in Iraq“. No, we don’t want to see people die. We don’t want to hear the death tolls everyday. If that was our goal we would not be trying to force a strategy, we would let Bush’s ’secret’ plan continue. Failure is where that secret plan is headed.
We want America to succeed with its values intact: the values of acceptance, equality and all the right granted us in the constitution. We want us to be the nation that works together to solve it’s problems. We don’t want to be a country that marginalizes 50% of it’s population. We want to be a country called The United States of America. We are done with dividers, we want uniters. We are taking our country back and we are starting on Tuesday.
| Comments (17) | Permanent Link | Categories: '06, Conrad Burns, dickhead, elections, ideologues, montana, political, republicans |
10/30/2006
Good News
by V on 2:57 pm.
I was just chatting with a buddy of mine, and he had some good news about the President’s visit to Billings for what Republicans are calling “A Victory Rally.” I won’t touch the chickens-before-they-are-hatched elephant in the room, but I will say that it is not all bad that a President whose support is dropping is coming to Montana. A lot of the folks e-mailing me have had mixed feelings about this visit.
On the one hand, the President is exciting. Regardless of who he is or how many people he black bags, the President will always draw a crowd. This means that Burns will reap an advantage by having Bush stop by.
On the other, Tester supporters are starting to realize that the way to win is to work from now until election day. A visit from the President is just a reminder of how necessary this work is.
So, the good news is that my buddy’s mom is probably going to volunteer now, though she would maybe not have without a visit from the President. As Matt noted earlier, this election will come down to turning out folks that support Jon all day on November 7. If you think that this election is won, one way or the other, you are wrong, but you can help Jon win it. Get out there and volunteer.
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Never Never Never. Well, sometimes.
by Shane Mason on 12:34 am.
OK, a lot then.
Oh yeah. This is very real folks. Get the fact sheet here. Conrad, you got pwnd!
| Comments (6) | Permanent Link | Categories: '06, Conrad Burns, dickhead, elections, political |
10/29/2006
Monday Tester Events
by Shane Mason on 11:02 pm.
If you are near any of the following locations on Monday and want to see Jon Tester, I would encourage you to do so. Just meeting him will help convince you that a vote for him is the right thing. These events are part of the Countdown For Change Tour, with stops all over Montana. Check for one near you and go down to show your support.
Miles City
7:00 a.m.
Breakfast
Eagles Club
24 N 8th Street
Forsyth
10:00 a.m.
Rally
Speedway Cafe
811 Main Street
Crow Agency
12:00 Noon
Rally
Apsaalooke Center
Multi-purpose Building
Lame Deer
3:00 p.m.
Rally
Charging Horse Casino
| Comments (0) | Permanent Link | Categories: '06, democrats, elections, political |
“The Truth”
by Matt Singer on 12:03 pm.
I generally like Sarpy Sam. He’s a cynic, but hell, we need cynics.
That said, I think this post of his is a bit over the top. It’s called “The Budget, Jon Tester, and The Truth” and it uses National Taxpayer Union Foundation stats to allege a giant spending increase by Tester. The full NTUF analysis is online. A few things that stick out. First, the NTUF alleges roughly $90 billion in increased expenditures by Tester. The three largest areas of increased expenditure?
- Health Care ($65 billion)
- National Security ($20 billion)
- Veterans ($3.2 billion)
After that, we literally start talking about very small amounts (at least in terms of relevance to the federal budget). It is also worth noting that $816 million of the “increased spending” is actually an education tax credit. If we’re counting decreasing tax revenues as increased spending, I’d imagine we’d see a wildly different budgetary impact on Burns’ side.
But let’s dive into health care, the biggest increased cost of Tester’s. Most of the programs here are of indeterminate cost and would probably cost relatively little, but there are two big items that would actually prompt significant savings: giving Medicare the power to negotiate prescription drug programs and the ability to reimport drugs from Canada. There was no effort to evaluate the cost of allowing prescription drug negotiation. The Center for Economic and Policy Research determined that such a measure could yield $563 billion in savings over a 7-year period. That’s roughly $79 billion a year — pretty huge to be considered “indetermine.”
What’s the big cost increase? Children’s health care. Tester thinks children should health coverage. I think that’s a pretty principled stance. So Tester proposes expanding the existing Children’s Health Insurance Program to make every child under age 18 eligible. Now, the NTUF estimates this cost at $64 billion a year. But their reasoning is based on estimates of costs of “MediKids” a Medicare like system for everyone up to the age of 21. I can’t even find where they calculate the cost of $64 billion per year, since CBO doesn’t appear to have done a fiscal analysis and the documents they cite are unclear about how they calculate cost. So, in other words, we just take their word on the cost of a different, but similar and larger program, and assume that they are being fair.
Why should we assume that? Sarpy Sam says they probably have an angle. It appears quite clear that they do. John Berthoud, the President of NTUF, is also affiliated with the American Legislative Exchange Council, a far-right group that connects corporate benefactors with legislators and funds junkets for state policymakers who carry their water, and the Media Research Center, a rightwing anti-media outfit. NTUF appears to be a part of the rightwing infrastructure. Their interest is in electing Burns and opposing Tester. My interest is the opposite, but I don’t really hide that fact.
Regardless, their numbers are misleading. Tester’s health care promises include both significant savings and significant expenditures. I won’t pretend that’s not the case. But the truth is, the increased spending is virtually all going to three things:
- Health care for all children
- Increasing troop pay and benefits
- Making sure veterans benefits are never cut
Those are admirable goals. Tester’s savings might actually make his whole thing close to budget neutral. That doesn’t mean we won’t need to increase revenue. Hell, we currently need to increase revenue.
| Comments (24) | Permanent Link | Categories: '06, Front Page, policy, political |
Legislative races
by Shane Mason on 8:46 am.
As Matt noted last week, the legislative races are in the final stretch. Many of these races are important but have been overshadowed by the US senate race. The Helena IR is running a story on the battle for control of the legislature. Also, there is a thumbnail sketch of several of the key races.
As you go out next week to knock on doors and deliver literature for Tester and Lindeen, perhaps you can double you effort with one of these candidates.
| Comments (2) | Permanent Link | Categories: '06, democrats, montana, political |
Really Really dirty little man
by Shane Mason on 1:25 am.
OK, I have not seen this article, but I heard a radio ad for Tester where Baucus talks about it. Then tonight I saw one of the Burns commercial that started it all. I will summarize it here:
Burns and Baucus. Baucus and Burns. Burns and Baucus. Baucus and Burns. Baucus Baucus Baucus, so vote Burns.
Heh, you’ld think they were best friends. Not so, it seems:
HELENA - Democratic Sen. Max Baucus cried foul Friday over Republican Sen. Conrad Burns and the national GOP using his name in advertisements and fliers that suggest he backs Burns over Jon Tester for the Senate.
“I don’t like it,†Baucus said in a phone interview. “It misleads Montana voters and it implies that I don’t support Jon Tester. I strongly support Jon Tester. I think he’s the better man.â€
Baucus said Burns has ignored a letter from his chief of staff and a phone call from Baucus asking him to refrain from using his name in the radio ads, which have now expanded to television.
Talk about a sniveling little man trying to piggyback on another’s record! The central message is: “Baucus is a senator and you like him. I am a senator too, so you must like me.”
“It’s very misleading,†Baucus said. “I’ve raised a lot of money for him (Tester). I think he’s going to be by far the better senator. He’s honest, he’s hard-working, he’s smart.â€
That’s all Burns has left folks. “You like Max because he is a good guy, so vote for me. I think that Tester should take Maxes radio message to the TV:
“You might have heard ads from Conrad Burns using my name. Well, let me be very clear: I support Jon Tester. I believe in Jon because he is a straight shooter, a real Montanan and just a good guy.â€
| Comments (14) | Permanent Link | Categories: '06, Conrad Burns, democrats, dickhead, elections, montana, political |
10/27/2006
What happened?
by Shane Mason on 10:28 am.
If we’re an arrogant nation, they’ll resent us; if we’re a humble nation, but strong, they’ll welcome us. And our nation stands alone right now in the world in terms of power, and that’s why we’ve got to be humble, and yet project strength in a way that promotes freedom.
George Bush October 12, 2000
These are wise words. What happened? They were always just words. Things have gone terribly wrong. We need leadership that will not only say these words and understand them. It’s simple, Jon Tester and Monica Lindeen Convince one person that you know to vote that would not have voted otherwise. Volunteer, the stakes are huge.
| Comments (8) | Permanent Link | Categories: '06, elections, political |
