Mason-Dixon has the race as a dead heat: 47-47. The poll was in the field from October 31-November 2. The Rasmussen poll that had Tester up 4 was taken November 1. The Zogby poll showing it a 1 point race occured between October 24 and October 31.

The reality? We’re tied — at most, 1 or 2 points ahead — at worst, we’re down 1 or 2. It’s turnout now.

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'06, Front Page, democrats, elections

11/3/2006

Another Push Poll

by Matt Singer on 6:09 pm.

Don’t people in Ohio have anything better to do?

Apparently this is over the fact that Tester hasn’t had a hunting license in a long time. That’d be because sport shooting is frowned upon in Montana.

Or something.

Shorter GOP message:

Butchering cattle: Bad.
Sport shooting: Bad.
Making a living as a farmer: Bad.
Selling out to D.C. lobbyists: Good.

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The Worst Part of the FEF Ad

by Matt Singer on 6:06 pm.

The Free Enterprise Fund has been running an ad called “Brokebank Democrats” that manages to tie together gay-baiting with rightwing economic lies. It’s really quite brilliant in its ridiculousness.

That said, it goes way over the top. They actually ask people to call Jon Tester’s home phone number. That seems a bit out of control to me.

The whole thing is funded by the guy who funded the Swift Boat Liars for Slander — not too surprising. If anyone tracks down his home phone number, I’m of half a mind to let y’all call him up and tell him what you think of his manners.

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I’ll See Your Dog…

by Matt Singer on 4:38 pm.

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'06, Front Page, democrats, elections

Calling Missoula Area Volunteers

by Matt Singer on 3:30 pm.

If you’re interested in knocking doors tomorrow morning at 11:00 AM with myself and a few other people, we could still use a little more help.

Shoot me an email at singer@leftinthewest.com with your contact info and we’ll get you plugged in.

Danke.

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Reality

by Matt Singer on 11:47 am.

This is a close race. It was always going to be and it is. The last time a Democrat defeated an incumbent Republican for federal office was 1974 when Max Baucus captured the Western Montana U.S. House seat.

That was 32 years ago.

~~No one said it would be easy.~~ Some people thought defeating Burns would be a walk in the park. They were wrong. But we’re not out. Hell, we’re not even down. But we need to fight like we are. Get your friends to the polls. If they’re unregistered, drag ‘em to your county courthouse and register ‘em and vote ‘em there.

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The GOP Continues an Old Tradition: Disenfranchising Low-Income Folks

by Matt Singer on 11:05 am.

It got raised in comments and I think I’ve got confirmation: Republican lawyers are allegedly trying to identify low-income precincts to attempt voter intimidation tactics.

Frankly, I’m all for defining voter intimidation as treason, finding a couple witnesses, and stringing these folks up — in a republic, trying to deny eligible folks the right to participate in self-government is an attack on the very nation.

But since that isn’t likely to happen, make sure people you’re talking to know the real rules. Voter ID is necessary, but it can be your polling place card (mailed by your county clerk’s office), it can be a driver’s license, student ID, military ID, or any other picture ID (CostCo cards work, I believe). It can be a utility bill that has your current address.

Voter intimidation is all too real in this country and with the GOP pulling out all the stops to win, it’ll probably be a reality in Montana this year. If you catch wind, please drop a line on this blog and also notify the Democratic party to the effort: 1-888-DEMVOTE is the number to contact about voter intimidation efforts.

Update — It looks like the Maryland GOP has a guide for their poll watchers that multiple experts are calling a guide to vote suppression.

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MT-Sen: Closing Time

by Matt Singer on 10:42 am.

Rasmussen has moved the Montana Senate race back to “Lean Dem” from “Toss Up.” They’ve got Tester up 50-46. Pulling out leaners, Tester is up 48-43.

60% of Tester voters say they’re voting for Tester. 32% say they’re voting against Burns. 66% of Burns’ backers say they’re voting for Burns. 32% say they’re voting against Tester.

Meanwhile, Governing notes that polling places in Montana are being consolidated — one more reason to vote early.

Oh, and I forgot to mention it, but this exchange last night was hilarious:

Taken by the spirit of the rally, retired UM professor Lucien Hut shouted out: â€œI’ll work so hard, I’ll have Conrad Burns vote for Jon Tester.â€

To which Schweitzer quipped: â€œJust pay Conrad Burns, and he’ll vote any way.â€

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'06, Front Page, elections

Zacharek Gushes for Borat

by V on 10:38 am.

I used to go to Salon.com for the meanest reviews of movies. They are now somewhat easier on films, but the reviews are still always good.

I plan to se Borat tonight, but I thought I would take a peek at what Salon had to say. The review does gush, and there is a great discussion of satire in modern times. More after I watch.

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Tester’s Independent Streak

by Matt Singer on 9:03 am.

One of the funny things about getting into an election is that some of the original reasons for doing it can get muddled along the way. Back in April or May of 2005, when chatter about Tester running for the Senate was heating up, I remember going over his voting scores from various interest groups and one of the things I liked was that he didn’t have a lifetime 100% from any of ‘em — including a couple that I’m a member of. He’d also broken with the Dems a couple times in high-profile ways. That’s something that an elected official needs to be willing to do. It needs to be for the right reasons (not lobbyist cash), of course, and it should be handled properly (in a way that is still respectful of those groups who represent real people and businesses and that respects the party and its members).

But the bigger reason why it was important was that sending someone to Washington, D.C., you need to have a Senator who is willing to even tell friends “No” occasionally.

The Gazette picks up that storyline today and dives into a number of Tester’s “independent” votes — a number of which I don’t agree with. I also am pretty sure I disagree with him on immigration and same-sex marriage. We’re a bit closer on taxes, although I’m still a bit to his left (even as I’m to the right — yes, I really am — of a number of Democrats). The Gazette story makes clear that Tester’s record when it comes to taxes is thoughtful — he supported some tax increases and some tax decreases, neither reflexively supporting revenue increases nor buying into the mindless mantra of “any money going to the government is a waste.”

Years ago, my father and I were backpacking together. Those always presented good opportunities for long conversations. In one of those conversations, my father explained what he looks for in candidates — people who think before they act, who have strong principles, and can provide sound justifications for their behavior. This memory may be muddled (as my dad would tell you, human memory is pretty fallible), but I think it is the gist of what he told me one night in the Beartooth Wilderness. My dad’s a moderate Republican, but he has supported Tester from close to the beginning. I think this independent streak goes a long way toward explaining it.

I chuckle occasionally as I read in national media about how Tester was the party’s “chosen one” in the primary, knowing that nothing could be further from the truth. They didn’t think he was a good enough fundraiser (aka “lapdog”). They didn’t think he was slick enough. To their good name, they got behind him quickly after the groundswell of support from real Montanans gave him an overwhelming primary victory. To their discredit, they now try to pretend that it was their maneuvering that resulted in Tester’s win, rather than the hard-work and dedication of a number of Montanans who wrote $20 checks and made 1,000s of phone calls to their fellow residents of this state.

The Montanans who did that — trust me, I know almost all of ‘em — aren’t going to ask Tester to be something that he isn’t. In fact, I think most of us will ask him to keep that independent streak, to occasionally disagree with us, and to even occasionally piss us off provided he doesn’t ever sell out to D.C.

There are five days left. We’ve got a chance to get a good man with an independent streak and the stones to back it up. He can stand up to interest groups — he’s done it before. He can stand up to party leadership — he’s done it before. He can even stand up to big money — he’s done it before. Perhaps more importantly, he can do it with some respect.

Back to work.

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'06, Front Page, democrats, elections

Room Was Too Small for the Rally

by Matt Singer on 12:29 am.

I went to the Tester/Schweitzer/Baucus rally tonight — the room was too damn small. It only fit 300 people. Honestly, in Missoula, you can expect double that for the next Senator from Montana. I heard that the Kalispell event was huge. Pablo apparently also had a standing-room only crowd. Good things I’m hearing.

I also just got home from volunteering at the local Demo HQ. The place was still buzzing when I left. Shane was apparently volunteering in Helena.

Long story short: I’m feeling cautiously optimistic.

This is all such a chance from the primary. Down in Billings with a week to go, the feeling was to give it all we had because even coming close would be amazing when you’re outspent 2-to-1. The phone calls were motivating. Being an underdog is something you can get used to.

But having a narrow lead (which we do) is terrifying. It feels like it could be so easy to watch it slip away. I’m still sleeping fine. I haven’t had the random moments of feeling like I’m going to vomit.

I assume those problems will emerge this weekend.

If you haven’t, head down to your courthouse and vote tomorrow. You can do it even if you’re not registered.

GRD.

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11/2/2006

Rasmussen Continues to Say 4 Point Race

by Matt Singer on 1:35 pm.

Rasmussen has a new poll (for members only) that is apparently Tester up by 4 — 50-46. Rasmussen has a better track record than Zogby. This is essentially unchanged from the last Rasmussen poll, which was Tester 51-47.

This is all about turnout.

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'06, Front Page, elections

Tester Way Up in Early Vote

by Matt Singer on 11:18 am.

I had a hunch this would be the case. An internal Tester poll has the campaign way up among early voters. Early voters will comprise as much as 1/3 of the electorate in some counties. Most importantly — this makes the GOTV operation a whole Hell of a lot easier on Election Day for the Dems.

I voted early (hence the “lapel sticker” up above). If you haven’t yet, get down to your county courthouse. That way, on Election Day, you can focus on getting other voters to the polls and keep lines short for your fellow citizens.

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Productivity Growth Stops?

by Matt Singer on 11:01 am.

Yeesh. Talk about bad news. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is saying productivity growth was equal to zero last quarter. Put another way: we’re not increasing more for the same amount of resources.

Productivity growth is the only true form of long-term economic growth. It’s also one of the big goals of supply-side economics: give entrepreneurs more resources to invest and they’ll manage to increase productivity. Given that we’re not basically six years into a massive supply-side policy and productivity has stopped growing, we may want to try another approach.

Paul Krugman offers some thoughts on the economy. Ezra was apparently present for the roundtable where Krugman talked and said that there was close to unanimity among the panelists that a recession is coming and we can’t do a damn thing about it.

Also worth keeping in mind? For most of the past six years, productivity gains have been significant. Despite those gains, typical worker wages have not increased. So even as things were getting better, things were stagnant for the typical American (the productivity gains went to profits and wealthy shareholders). Now that things are stagnant for the country (assuming BLS’s quarterly calculations end up being correct), what’s going to happen to the typical worker?

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Senate Race: A 1 Point Margin?

by Matt Singer on 10:23 am.

Zogby is polling it as a 1-point race: Tester leading 47-46. The last poll Zogby did had it as 46-42. That was in early October. Zogby’s been polling it closer than most, but this just goes to show: this is a damn close race.

Get to work.

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