10/26/2006
DSCC Has Tester Up 6
by Matt Singer on 4:09 pm.
48-42 with Burns at 39% approval.
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by Matt Singer on 4:09 pm.
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You mean to tell me that the Democrats have picked their own candidate in a poll. That is just shocking.
It’s a poll of the general electorate in Montana.
Never hear of that group and google didn’t come up with anything. Does it have any cred?
So you can’t appropriately decipher a sentence fragment, let alone a complete sentence? How are those law school grades?
As if I give two shits about sentence structure on a blog site. Just wanted to know if we can take this poll seriously, cause I’d like to. The last sentence was just for you, Lamnidae. Seriously, though, anyone know about the group that conducted this poll?
Paul, Lamnidae was responding to Jake, I believe. The DSCC is the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee — it’s the national committee responsible for electing Democrats to the U.S. Senate.
Paul Harstad, the pollster, is pretty well-respected, did work for Senators Obama and Salazar, and has done pretty extensive Montana polling in the past.
Come on, Matt, I know what the DSCC is. The question remains — is the poll reliable. Harstad’s reputation does not entirely answer that question. Nevertheless, I’m sure we’re due for a new Rasmussen or Mason-Dixon any day now.
You asked whether I knew anything about the reputation of the group that conducted the poll. It’s the DSCC. I thought you knew, but hey — making assumptions is never a good idea. And any question that seems reasonably asked deserves an honest response.
Harstad’s numbers shouldn’t be compared to the Rasmussen or M-D polls that have trendlines and, obviously, the DSCC wouldn’t be releasing if their numbers came in bad, so there is risk of selection bias, but Harstad has a long track record in Montana at least on ballot measures.
I can see it now: the sniveling liberals called their own political base in a biased poll, but only managed to get a 48% approval rating for their own candidate. Oh, the deception! Oh, the statistical outliar! Oh wait, it matches pretty much every other poll on this race.
I’ll still wager anyone that it’ll be Tester by ten. Jake, here’s a good chance to show you confidence in Corny…….that is if he don’t get INDICTED first! How bout a friendly bet. Hell, I’ll even give you odds! What do’ya say?
Actually, Larry, I am almost tempted to take your wager. I think Tester will win, but certainly not by 10. About the only way I could see that as being accurate is if the rumors about Burns being the next indicted Abramoff associate turn out to be true - and that those rumors are proven true BEFORE the election. As much as I would love to see the Conman in striped Pajamas, I doubt that it will happen before Nov 7th, and as it stands, I also doubt that Tester will win by 10 or more.
I call it by 10 too Moorcat. It will be about 43-53 with 2% to Jones.
Hell, Larry I’ll take that bet. You’re giving me ten, right? How about a 100 bucks? If you win I’ll donate to the charity of your choice and if I win you donate to the “Salute American Heroes” fund or the “Vietnam Veterans Legacy Foundation”. Deal or No Deal?
OK, Tadpole, here’s the deal. I’ll bet you ten for Tester by Ten! Ten bucks and you’re on. OK? (p.s. I hope Matt doesn’t mind a friendly wager on his site)
Tell you what, Larry, I won’t take advantage of you, so I’ll bet you ten bucks straight up. Deal….
Tadpole, if Larry doesn’t take you up on that one, I probably will. I think Tester will win, I simply don’t think he will win by 10 points.
That’s Master Chief Tadpole to you Seaman Moorcat….:~) So you want some of my money, do you? Well, since you’re so confident of Tester winning, how about some points? I gave Larry a good deal cause he’s been so nice to me. You, however, have been very discourteous and have failed to adhere to strict rank..:~) protocol, so therefore no special liberty(treats) for you. So give me you spread offer.
Tadpole,
You can call yourself Napoleon if you want. It doesn’t mean that I will respect you. If you were actually in the real man’s Navy, you would already know that respect is earned, not demanded.
No, I will not give you a spread. You want my money, put up or shut up. That is the Navy way..
Moorcat
Didn’t demand anything at all from you,Moorcatty, just took a little jab, but it’s obvious you took it otherwise. I can do without your respect, because coming from you it would be meaningless anyway. What real man’s Navy are you referring to and from what country?
Now here this, seaman, my offer was to Larry and not to a penny pincher who thought he’d get into the act and get some “easy” money. I made you a separate offer and of course got a put up or shut smart ass reply. I wouldn’t want your money anyway, cause I couldn’t be sure of where it’s been.
At ease and carry on with your compartment/head cleaner duties…
Pretty much what I thought…. a lot of talk and no action. You give a bad name to “squids”.
“You give a bad name to “squidsâ€.”
Ex-”squids” like you maybe, which is a plus for the rest of us. Geeez…you couldn’t have been much of a “Squid”. Never heard of deckplates on a submarine or “Deckplate Leadership”. Just curious, but which submarine were you stationed on?
Belay my last question, Moorcat, I found your name on the ship’s company roster of the Pink Submarine that was used in the movie Operation Petticoat…:~)
Tadpole, you gotta excuse these posters now a days. They don’t know nuthin’ bout he military. They don’t have no military bearing. Hell, the probly don’t even know what an Article 15 is! Hell, I had so many it read like a novel!
Ooops! Sorry, I forgot. You squids called it captains mast or some such. I like Article 15 better.
DEAL!
Just like taking candy from a baby. I guess you guys didn’t hear about James Webb coming to Montana to stump for Tester, huh. He’ll also be holding a book signing right after his stump..:~)
Go to Drudge if you want the straight skinny…
Larry, I highly doubt that anyone here wants to deprive you of any thing from your monthly government check.
Jak, DEPRIVE ME! Please! But too late. I think that Tadpole will take my ten for ten for Tester bet.
jake- don’t deprive yourself of decent odds, just go to betfair.com.
Anyhow, partisan polls either way have the predictive power of a random number generator. An interesting site I watch is electoral-vote.com. I think the wildcard that seems to be getting no discussion is that the voting machines are eminently hackable. This could ruin the vote in Ohio, VA, and TN. And before us Montanans get overly smug, the optical scan machines a re just about as hackable as the touch screen devices. For an interesting read, check out the new Ars Technica frontpage. Pretty sickening.
Can’t vote with punch cards. Can’t vote with machines. Maybe they should just have the democrats report to their polling places and have them vote by raising their hands. Right hand for republican. Left hand for democrat. But, alas, they’d probably screw that up too, since voters would be required to know which hand is which.
The democrats getting ready for close races that they lose. Hello 2000 and 2004.
Look, I really don’t care as much about who wins as opposed to whether the outcome is believable or not. Our election system is broken. If you bothered to read the Ars article, you would realize that ANYBODY can hack one of these machines. The seriousness of the situation will not become clear, I think, until we get some precinct reporting vacuuously tampered results (for example, 100% green, no votes reported, twice as many votes as the total population, something like that). As long as the tampering favors one of the two major parties, though, nothing will change.
You know, they should have thought about that before the powers to be round filed the punch card voting system. I’ve voted punch card forever and all one has to do, after voting, is take the card, turn it over, and check for any Al Gores still hanging on.
It doesn’t seem to matter what voting system is used, the democrats will scream to high heaven about it if they lose.
Shoot, here in Washington one of the democrat county’s miraculously produced “uncounted” ballots during a recount to swing an election their way.
I wouldn’t be a bit surprised that, should a close election requiring a recount be necessary this election cycle, “uncounted” votes will come into play once again.
Where the hell is Jimmah Carter when you need a reliable election observer/moderator? On second thought, forget it, we have enough voting problems as is.
This is not about democrats or republicans, it is about the integrity of the vote. Maryland is a solidly democratic state that uses Diebold machines primarily. The vote there is every bit as susceptible to tampering as the Ohio vote. If the exit polls show Steele leading 55-45 and Cardin wins 60-40, do you think there won’t be any bellyaching about vote fraud? Read the Ars article carefully, and then tell me that you have no concerns about the system.
I guess if one has the desire, the capabability and the access any and all voting systems can be compromised, and in particular this new electronic voting.
What can I say, the democrats, and yes it was the democrats, bitched and moaned about the punch card voting system because their voters weren’t smart enough to use it, so what happens? They come up with something worse.
I think the only alternative here is to elect all democrats and let them come up with a system that would insure that all future elections would be won by democrats and hence no more bitching by the democrats and since they’d be in charge none allowed by the republicans either.
I’m sorry, but no system will be acceptable unless democrats win. It’s just the nature of the beast.
That was hilarious. Squid implied that we don’t know our right from our left.
I think there is going to be a bunch of liberals like Larry the enviro terrorist jumping off bridges on Nov. 8th. Please, don’t do it. There are professionals that can help you. Burns by 4!
The real question will be what will happen to Eric and his gay band of morons at What’s White in Montana? If thier poster boy fails in the election, who will give them thier goosestepping orders?
“enviro terrorist”. I kinda like that. Thanks, Mini.
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